The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Markets: Evidence from Time Series Analysis on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

Hartoto Hartoto; Pipit Novila Sari; Reni Nurlaela; Agung  Budilaksono

doi:10.37899/journal-la-sociale.v6i4.2110

Hartoto Prodi Ekonomi Syariah, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Institut Agama Islam Miftahul Ulum Tanjungpinang https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9712-8868
Pipit Novila Sari Prodi Akuntansi, Fakultas Bisnis, Universitas Mitra Indonesia
Reni Nurlaela Prodi Akuntansi, Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Putra Indonesia
Agung Budilaksono Prodi Manajemen Keuangan Negara, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN https://orcid.org/0009-0001-6804-0290

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37899/journal-la-sociale.v6i4.2110

Keywords: Macroeconomics, Financial Markets, Analysis Time Series

Abstract

Study This discuss influence factors macroeconomics to stock market performance on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), with focus on inflation, interest rates interest, value exchange, and growth economy. Through analysis series time, found that every increase inflation by 1% increase volatility Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) by 0.3%. Increase ethnic group Bank Indonesia's interest rate of 1% lowered the IHSG by an average of 0.5%. In addition, the depreciation of the rupiah affected foreign investor behavior, with decline mark swap push capital outflow and pressure price share. On the contrary, growth economy positive projected 1 % increase IHSG by 0.6%. Discussion This show that policy fiscal and monetary government, as well as stability macroeconomics, very influential to stock market movements. Understanding will dynamics This important for investors to develop a more comprehensive investment strategy effective. Stability economy give strong foundation for market growth, while uncertainty increase risk and volatility. In conclusion, fluctuations macroeconomics play role significant in determine direction and stability of the stock market in Indonesia.

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